Webinar Files
T3 Webinar: FTA Transit Automation Research: Transit Bus Automation Market Assessment
(November 7, 2019)
Automated Transit Bus Market Assessment Briefing
Presenter: Joshua Cregger
Presenter’s Org: John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT)
HTML version of the presentation
Image descriptions are contained in brackets. [ ]
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T3 webinars are brought to you by the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Professional Capacity Building (PCB) Program of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s (USDOT) ITS Joint Program Office (JPO). References in this webinar to any specific commercial products, processes, or services, or the use of any trade, firm, or corporation name is for the information and convenience of the public, and does not constitute endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the USDOT.
The slides in this presentation contain the USDOT Volpe Center logo.
Slide 1: Automated Transit Bus Market Assessment Briefing
Joshua Cregger
USDOT Volpe Center
November 7, 2019
[This slide contains a collage of icons: a transit bus, a large steering wheel, a bus, a bus with a wheelchair-accessible lift being used by a person in a wheelchair, and a transit hub.]
Slide 2: Project Overview
- Purpose - Provide information on commercially available technologies and commercialization timelines for near-market technologies.
- Audience - FTA and transit agency staff, as well as other communities interested in procuring and testing vehicles (e.g., cities and state DOTs).
- Scope - Range of automation technologies (SAE Level 0-5 automation systems) and bus types (40’, 60-80’, paratransit, shuttles).
- Methods - Information collected from publicly available documentation (e.g., news articles and industry websites) and phone calls with bus manufacturers, suppliers, and new entrants.
Slide 3: Stakeholder Engagement
- Bus Manufacturers
- Gillig Corporation
- New Flyer
- Proterra
- Volvo (Nova Bus)
- Suppliers
- Bendix
- Continental
- DCS Technologies
- Mobileye
- ZF/TRW
- New Entrants
- 2getthere
- Aptiv/nuTonomy
- EasyMile
- Local Motors
- May Mobility
- Navya
Slide 4: Vehicle Types
- Transit Buses
- Driver assistance features
- Automated features
- Automated Shuttles
- Several providers
- Many pilot tests
- Commercial products or prototypes?
[This slide contains six photos: (1) a commuter bus, (2) a wheelchair-accessible van, and (3-6) automated shuttle buses.]
Slide 5: Key Findings
- Perception-Reality Disconnect
- Pricing
- Applicability Limitations
- Volume/Scale Constraints
- Industry Activities
- Research Issues
- Importance of Demonstrations
Slide 6: Key Findings: Perception-Reality Disconnect
- Optimistic media coverage
- Few features available
- Shuttles becoming more available
- Systems in the pilot testing stage
- Years before broader deployment
[This slide contains three screenshots: (1) from GEAR: “China’s Self-Driving Bus Shows Autonomous Tech’s Real Potential,” which includes a photo of the self-driving bus, (2) from Business News: “Volvo to test full-size driverless bus in Singapore,” which includes a photo of Singapore’s first full-size autonomous electric bus, and (3) “Future Bus: Revolutionary Design,” which includes a Mercedes-Benz Future Bus design image.]
Slide 7: Key Findings: Pricing
- Technology costs unknown
- Prototypes are typically not priced
- Frequent changes in price
[This slide contains a clipart image of a price tag with the text “Price???” on it.]
Slide 8: Key Findings: Applicability Limitations
- Current automation systems for highways may not apply
- Buses drive at lower speeds
- Buses drive in a variety of environments (e.g., urban, suburban, and rural roads)
- False positives are a barrier to adoption
- System may incorrectly activate
- Such activations may make driving more difficult or dangerous
Slide 9: Key Findings: Volume/Scale Constraints
- Light-duty vehicle: ~95%
- Medium-duty vehicles: ~3%
- Heavy-duty vehicles: ~2%
- Other Heavy-duty vehicles: ~95%
- Transit buses: ~5%
[This slide contains two pie charts. The Heavy Duty slice from the larger pie chart is further divided into another pie chart. The information from the charts is reproduced above.]
Slide 10: Key Findings: Industry Activities
- Technology Roadmaps
- High-level
- Internal
- Uncertain
- Supplier Outreach
- Share planning information
- Conversations ongoing
- Potential collaborations
[This slide contains a graphic image of stakeholders in a discussion around a table covered with a map.]
Slide 11: Key Findings: Research Issues
- Uncertainty regarding issues, including:
- Pedestrian behavior
- Occupant behavior
- Operator acceptance
- Insurance and liability
- Communication and education
- Research and outreach activities may be needed
[This slide contains a photo of an automated bus at a test site.]
Slide 12: Key Findings: Importance of Demonstrations
- Demonstration and pilot programs are essential to making technological progress and answering questions on the feasibility of automation systems for transit buses.
- High cost of pilots and demonstrations can be prohibitive.
- Federal grants and programs can help enable research, demonstration, and implementation.
Slide 13: International Testing Activities
- Pierce Transit SRD Project
- Vehicle Assist and Automation (VAA)
- Proterra-University of Nevada, Reno Research
- Automated Bus Consortium Projects (Multiple Locations)
[This slide contains a map of the world, with all continents drawn fuzzy, except for the United States. Four large dots mark the locations of U.S. testing activities. The labels for those locations are listed above.]
Slide 14: International Testing Activities
- Scotland Automated Bus Trial
- Scania and Nobina Automated Bus Trial
- Mercedes-Benz “Future Bus” Testing
- Volvo Automated Bus Projects
[This slide contains a map of the world, with all continents drawn fuzzy, except for Europe. Four large dots mark the locations of European testing activities. The labels for those locations are listed above.]
Slide 15: International Testing Activities
- Automated Driving for Universal Services (SIP-adus)
- Haneda Airport Bus Trial
- Baidu Apolong Buses
- Alphaba Bus Trial
- Yutong Bus Demonstration
- LILEE Systems Bus Trial
- Volvo Automated Bus Projects
- TfNSW Automated Bus Trials
[This slide contains a map of the world, with all continents drawn fuzzy, except for Southeast Asia and Australia. Eight large dots mark the locations of Southeast Asian testing activities and Australian testing activities. The labels for those locations are listed above.]
Slide 16: Market Assessment Report
[This slide contains two screenshots: (1) the cover of the October 2019 FTA “Transit Bus Automation Market Assessment” report and (2) the report’s Report Summary page.]
Slide 17: For More Information
transit.dot.gov/automation-research
Joshua Cregger
USDOT Volpe Center
Joshua.Cregger@dot.gov
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